ANALYSE-MÄRKTE-TRENDS
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Wireless 4G technology beginning to shape up
The primary 4G technologies of the future are expected to be Long Term Evolution (LTE), Ultra Mobile Broadband (UMB), and 802.16m WiMAX. All of these technologies are based on OFDMA, and promise theoretical throughputs of 100Mbps for mobile applications. An official definition of what is expected of a 4G technology will be embodied in the ITU's IMT-Advanced requirements, which are projected to come out in the 2008/2009 timeframe.
Although LTE is generally linked to the GSM family of technologies, including GSM/GPRS/EDGE/WCDMA/HSPA, LTE is a radical change from any of these technologies. This goes for UMB also; although UMB used to be called EV-DO Rev C, it really is much more similar to LTE or 802.16m WiMAX than it is to the CDMA family of standards, i.e. CDMA/CDMA2000/EV-DO. Like 802.16m WiMAX, LTE and UMB will be based on OFDMA and, consequently, will operate the most effectively with large channel bandwidths, such as 20MHz and higher. This is different from HSPA's 5MHz channels, or EV-DO's 1.5MHz channels. Even 802.16e WiMAX (which is commonly equated with EV-DO and HSPA) currently has profiles with 10MHz channels and smaller. Consequently, these 4G technologies will need a lot of spectrum to enable their promised high throughputs, and will for the most part require significant infrastructure upgrades, no matter which technology an operator is upgrading from or to.
4G technologies are expected to be initially implemented in 2010; however, looking at the slow uptake rate of EV-DO and HSPA, it may be 2012 and beyond. In-Stat actually forecasts that GSM/GPRS and GSM/EDGE handsets will still make up the majority of cellular handsets in 2011, with EV-DO and HSPA handsets expected to overtake 2G technologies in 2012. This, perhaps, points to a slow build-out of 4G networks, in which operators will maintain their 3G networks for a long time, running these as complementary to their 4G networks.
There is one major vendor driving each of the 4G technology alternatives. Intel is all about 802.16e and 802.16m WiMAX. Qualcomm is driving UMB, in line with its development of previous 3GPP2 standards. Ericsson is LTE's main cheerleader, also focusing on aggressively promoting HSPA, the predecessor technology to LTE within the 3GPP family of standards.
Certainly, the battle between Intel, whose strength is in PC platforms, and Qualcomm and Ericsson, whose strengths lie in the cellular handset and infrastructure world, will be contentious. Intel plans to embed WiMAX in every mobile PC, as an integral part of its mobile processor platform. Both Qualcomm and Ericsson can get LTE and UMB into handsets; this is not an issue. But both are struggling to get into the Mobile PC market with embedded 3G cellular solutions. And, each wants to get a piece of the growing portable CE device market, including the hundreds of millions of portable media players (PMPs), digital cameras, handheld games, personal navigation devices (PNDs) and other mobile Internet devices that ship each year; the next step for these devices is the addition of wide area wireless connectivity, with many of these portable CE devices starting to embed Wi-Fi for short-range connectivity. Intel, Qualcomm, and Ericsson all want to be in the portable CE, mobile PC and handset spaces. Ericsson has already established a business unit dedicated to push HSPA out to PC OEMs; in fact, Ericsson expects that HSPA will be embedded into over 50% of mobile PCs by 2011. On the other end of the spectrum, Intel hopes that, by 2011, 802.16e WiMAX is in every mobile PC. In any light, this battle for 4G market share will be brutal.
Drivers of LTE, UMB and 802.16m WiMAX adoption will include the following: the re-allocation of older spectrum for 4G technologies; the resolution of any WiMAX intellectual property issues; the creation of FDD profiles for 802.16e WiMAX; the uptake rate of 802.16e in Mobile PCs; the uptake rate of EV-DO and HSPA in Mobile PCs; the continued evolution of the mobile handset; and an increase in the uptake rate of wireless broadband technologies into portable CE devices.
Just as the ITU's IMT-2000 formally determined which technologies were "3G," IMT-Advanced is expected to bless "4G" technologies. However, like the "3G" technologies, as defined within IMT-2000, it was really some later enhancements to these technologies (i.e. EV-DO and HSPA) that actually provided for what many consider to be the real 3G technologies. So, this may also be the case for the acceptance of LTE, UMB, and 802.16m WiMAX under IMT-Advanced. Initial implementations of LTE, UMB and 802.16m WiMAX may fall short of “4G” throughput and other expectations, with later enhancements, or even some type of technology combination, actually bringing real 4G to the table.
If this article was of interest, be sure to check out "The Road to 4G: Will LTE, UMB and WiMAX Just Be Stops Along the Way?" report # IN0703689GW, located online at:
http://www.instat.com/catalog/wcatalogue.asp?id=281#IN0703689GW
Gemma Tedesco, Sr Analyst: gemma.tedesco@reedbusiness.com
Although LTE is generally linked to the GSM family of technologies, including GSM/GPRS/EDGE/WCDMA/HSPA, LTE is a radical change from any of these technologies. This goes for UMB also; although UMB used to be called EV-DO Rev C, it really is much more similar to LTE or 802.16m WiMAX than it is to the CDMA family of standards, i.e. CDMA/CDMA2000/EV-DO. Like 802.16m WiMAX, LTE and UMB will be based on OFDMA and, consequently, will operate the most effectively with large channel bandwidths, such as 20MHz and higher. This is different from HSPA's 5MHz channels, or EV-DO's 1.5MHz channels. Even 802.16e WiMAX (which is commonly equated with EV-DO and HSPA) currently has profiles with 10MHz channels and smaller. Consequently, these 4G technologies will need a lot of spectrum to enable their promised high throughputs, and will for the most part require significant infrastructure upgrades, no matter which technology an operator is upgrading from or to.
4G technologies are expected to be initially implemented in 2010; however, looking at the slow uptake rate of EV-DO and HSPA, it may be 2012 and beyond. In-Stat actually forecasts that GSM/GPRS and GSM/EDGE handsets will still make up the majority of cellular handsets in 2011, with EV-DO and HSPA handsets expected to overtake 2G technologies in 2012. This, perhaps, points to a slow build-out of 4G networks, in which operators will maintain their 3G networks for a long time, running these as complementary to their 4G networks.
There is one major vendor driving each of the 4G technology alternatives. Intel is all about 802.16e and 802.16m WiMAX. Qualcomm is driving UMB, in line with its development of previous 3GPP2 standards. Ericsson is LTE's main cheerleader, also focusing on aggressively promoting HSPA, the predecessor technology to LTE within the 3GPP family of standards.
Certainly, the battle between Intel, whose strength is in PC platforms, and Qualcomm and Ericsson, whose strengths lie in the cellular handset and infrastructure world, will be contentious. Intel plans to embed WiMAX in every mobile PC, as an integral part of its mobile processor platform. Both Qualcomm and Ericsson can get LTE and UMB into handsets; this is not an issue. But both are struggling to get into the Mobile PC market with embedded 3G cellular solutions. And, each wants to get a piece of the growing portable CE device market, including the hundreds of millions of portable media players (PMPs), digital cameras, handheld games, personal navigation devices (PNDs) and other mobile Internet devices that ship each year; the next step for these devices is the addition of wide area wireless connectivity, with many of these portable CE devices starting to embed Wi-Fi for short-range connectivity. Intel, Qualcomm, and Ericsson all want to be in the portable CE, mobile PC and handset spaces. Ericsson has already established a business unit dedicated to push HSPA out to PC OEMs; in fact, Ericsson expects that HSPA will be embedded into over 50% of mobile PCs by 2011. On the other end of the spectrum, Intel hopes that, by 2011, 802.16e WiMAX is in every mobile PC. In any light, this battle for 4G market share will be brutal.
Drivers of LTE, UMB and 802.16m WiMAX adoption will include the following: the re-allocation of older spectrum for 4G technologies; the resolution of any WiMAX intellectual property issues; the creation of FDD profiles for 802.16e WiMAX; the uptake rate of 802.16e in Mobile PCs; the uptake rate of EV-DO and HSPA in Mobile PCs; the continued evolution of the mobile handset; and an increase in the uptake rate of wireless broadband technologies into portable CE devices.
Just as the ITU's IMT-2000 formally determined which technologies were "3G," IMT-Advanced is expected to bless "4G" technologies. However, like the "3G" technologies, as defined within IMT-2000, it was really some later enhancements to these technologies (i.e. EV-DO and HSPA) that actually provided for what many consider to be the real 3G technologies. So, this may also be the case for the acceptance of LTE, UMB, and 802.16m WiMAX under IMT-Advanced. Initial implementations of LTE, UMB and 802.16m WiMAX may fall short of “4G” throughput and other expectations, with later enhancements, or even some type of technology combination, actually bringing real 4G to the table.
If this article was of interest, be sure to check out "The Road to 4G: Will LTE, UMB and WiMAX Just Be Stops Along the Way?" report # IN0703689GW, located online at:
http://www.instat.com/catalog/wcatalogue.asp?id=281#IN0703689GW
Gemma Tedesco, Sr Analyst: gemma.tedesco@reedbusiness.com
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